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Level of the Lake

Inflow forecast

modeled

NOAA’s National Water Model, short-range run issued Nov 14, 2 PM MST, for the 1 gauged tributary reach feeding Jordanelle Reservoir. The model includes rain that has already fallen plus the near-term rain forecast.

Gauged inflow now

108

cfs · measured

Peak next 17h

308

cfs · ~Sun 6 AM MST · modeled

Projected volume

380

acre-feet over 17h · modeled

Net lake effect

+0.08 ft

after 146 cfs out · inferred

Projected flow by tributary reach

911812724 PM12 AM8 AM
Forecast inflow, next 16 hours, all gauged reaches: starts at 138 cfs, peaks at 308 cfs Sun 6 AM (modeled)
HourTotal (cfs)Provo (cfs)
Sat 4 PM138138
Sat 5 PM168168
Sat 6 PM200200
Sat 7 PM230230
Sat 8 PM255255
Sat 9 PM273273
Sat 10 PM286286
Sat 11 PM295295
Sun 12 AM300300
Sun 1 AM303303
Sun 2 AM305305
Sun 3 AM307307
Sun 4 AM307307
Sun 5 AM307307
Sun 6 AM308308
Sun 7 AM308308
Sun 8 AM308308
ProvoTotal (all gauged reaches)

Dashed lines are forecast. Values are at the gauges; water takes hours to a couple of days to get from there to the lake. Flows are forecast to rise noticeably. National Water Model via NOAA/NWS · public domain.

The “net lake effect” is the forecast inflow volume minus the water leaving the lake now (146 cfs, Provo River below the dam, right now), held steady over the forecast period and spread over the lake’s estimated current surface area (before releases it would be +0.18 ft). It ignores travel time, channel losses and any change the dam operators make, so it gives a sense of scale, not a prediction. During floods, watch the main page instead.