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Inflow forecast

modeled

NOAA’s National Water Model, short-range run issued Nov 14, 2 PM MST, for the 3 gauged tributary reaches feeding Lake Powell. The model includes rain that has already fallen plus the near-term rain forecast.

Gauged inflow now

9,380

cfs · measured

Peak next 17h

10,976

cfs · ~Sun 8 AM MST · modeled

Projected volume

14,220

acre-feet over 17h · modeled

Net lake effect

+0.05 ft

after 7,900 cfs out · inferred

Projected flow by tributary reach

3.2k6.5k9.7k4 PM12 AM8 AM
Forecast inflow, next 16 hours, all gauged reaches: starts at 8,871 cfs, peaks at 10,976 cfs Sun 8 AM (modeled)
HourTotal (cfs)Green (cfs)Colorado (cfs)San Juan (cfs)
Sat 4 PM8,8714,1863,3111,374
Sat 5 PM8,9834,2293,3131,440
Sat 6 PM9,1264,2773,3181,531
Sat 7 PM9,2994,3243,3261,649
Sat 8 PM9,4964,3653,3351,796
Sat 9 PM9,7064,3963,3431,966
Sat 10 PM9,9184,4183,3502,151
Sat 11 PM10,1204,4303,3522,338
Sun 12 AM10,3054,4373,3522,517
Sun 1 AM10,4654,4383,3482,679
Sun 2 AM10,5984,4373,3422,819
Sun 3 AM10,7054,4333,3352,936
Sun 4 AM10,7894,4273,3283,034
Sun 5 AM10,8554,4203,3223,113
Sun 6 AM10,9064,4103,3153,180
Sun 7 AM10,9454,4003,3093,237
Sun 8 AM10,9764,3883,3033,285
GreenColoradoSan JuanTotal (all gauged reaches)

Dashed lines are forecast. Values are at the gauges; water takes hours to a couple of days to get from there to the lake. National Water Model via NOAA/NWS · public domain.

The “net lake effect” is the forecast inflow volume minus the water leaving the lake now (7,900 cfs, Colorado at Lees Ferry, right now), held steady over the forecast period and spread over the lake’s estimated current surface area (before releases it would be +0.21 ft). It ignores travel time, channel losses and any change the dam operators make, so it gives a sense of scale, not a prediction. During floods, watch the main page instead.