Inflow forecast

modeled

NOAA’s National Water Model, short-range run issued Sep 29, 10 AM CDT, for the 2 gauged tributary reaches feeding Lake Texoma. The model includes rain that has already fallen plus the near-term rain forecast.

Gauged inflow now

103

cfs · measured

Peak next 18h

193

cfs · ~Wed 4 AM CDT · modeled

Projected volume

209

acre-feet over 18h · modeled

Net lake effect

0.00 ft

after 72 cfs out · inferred

Projected flow by tributary reach

Forecast inflow, next 17 hours, all gauged reaches: starts at 106 cfs, peaks at 193 cfs Wed 4 AM (modeled)
Hour	Total (cfs)	Red River (cfs)	Washita (cfs)
Tue 11 AM	106	101	4.2
Tue 12 PM	107	103	4.6
Tue 1 PM	110	104	5.3
Tue 2 PM	112	106	6.4
Tue 3 PM	114	107	7.8
Tue 4 PM	117	107	9.9
Tue 5 PM	121	108	13
Tue 6 PM	125	108	17
Tue 7 PM	130	108	22
Tue 8 PM	136	109	28
Tue 9 PM	143	109	34
Tue 10 PM	150	109	41
Tue 11 PM	158	109	49
Wed 12 AM	165	109	56
Wed 1 AM	172	109	63
Wed 2 AM	179	109	70
Wed 3 AM	186	109	77
Wed 4 AM	193	110	83

Red RiverWashitaTotal (all gauged reaches)

Dashed lines are forecast. Values are at the gauges; water takes hours to a couple of days to get from there to the lake. Flows are forecast to rise noticeably. National Water Model via NOAA/NWS · public domain.

The “net lake effect” is the forecast inflow volume minus the water leaving the lake now (72 cfs, Red River at Denison Dam, right now), held steady over the forecast period and spread over today’s surveyed surface area (TWDB) (before releases it would be 0.00 ft). It ignores travel time, channel losses and any change the dam operators make, so it gives a sense of scale, not a prediction. During floods, watch the main page instead.